Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview: Scoring, Chaos, and Value at TPC Scottsdale

Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview: Scoring, Chaos, and Value at TPC Scottsdale

The PGA Tour heads to Arizona for one of the most unique events in all of sports — the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Known equally for elite golf and an unmatched party atmosphere, this tournament blends high-octane scoring with relentless crowd energy, highlighted by the famous par-3 16th “stadium hole”, where roars rival major championships.

Despite the chaos, this event has quietly become one of the most predictable scoring tournaments on Tour. Since 2018, every winner has finished at -18 or better, reinforcing the importance of aggressive iron play, birdie conversion, and avoiding costly mistakes.

Course Overview: TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)

2026 WM Phoenix Open Course Details

• Course: TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
• Yardage: 7,261 yards
• Par: 71
• Greens: POA Overseed
• Average Green Size: 7,069 sq. ft.
• Sand Bunkers: 67
• Holes with Water in Play: 6

TPC Scottsdale is not overly long, but it demands precision. The layout rewards strong approach play, controlled driving, and players who consistently give themselves birdie looks on par 4s.

Event Trends & Favorites

This event has developed a clear pattern at the top of the board. Scottie Scheffler has won two of the last four WM Phoenix Opens, and once again enters as the betting favorite at +215.

At that number, oddsmakers are implying roughly a 33% chance to win. Scheffler’s actual performance supports that valuation. He’s converted 16 wins in 43 starts (37%) at similar elite-field events, which makes the +215 number not only justified, but fair on a course where he’s consistently dominant.

While Scheffler is the clear headliner, the depth of this field and the scoring nature of the course open the door for value further down the board.

Key Stats That Matter at TPC Scottsdale

TPC Scottsdale rewards a very specific statistical profile. The most predictive metrics in order for this week:

1. Strokes Gained: Approach
2. Approach from 100–150 yards
3. Total Driving / SG: Off the Tee / Good Drive %
4. Birdie or Better Percentage
5. Par 4 Scoring
6. Bogey Avoidance
7. Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Trivialis/Bent)
8. TPC Scottsdale Course History
9. Scrambling – Short Grass
10. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
11. Strokes Gained: Short Game

This is a scoring environment — but mistakes still matter. Players who combine aggression with discipline consistently rise to the top.

Outright Betting Targets

Xander Schauffele — 19/1 (0.4 Units)

Schauffele’s all-around profile fits TPC Scottsdale perfectly. Elite approach play, strong par-4 scoring, and comfort in high-energy environments make him one of the most reliable contenders in this field.

Sam Burns — 29/1 (0.3 Units)

Burns brings a strong birdie-or-better profile and excels when scoring is required. His combination of wedge play and putting on overseeded greens gives him real upside at this number.

Pierceson Coody — 55/1 (0.2 Units)

Coody continues to profile as a strong fit for TPC Scottsdale. Solid driving, improving approach play, and confidence in birdie-heavy events make him an intriguing mid-range outright.

Michael Thorbjornsen — 55/1 (0.2 Units)

Thorbjornsen’s ball-striking upside and aggressive scoring profile fit this course exceptionally well. If the putter cooperates, he has legitimate Top-5 potential.

Kurt Kitayama — 60/1 (0.2 Units)

Kitayama thrives on courses that reward aggressive driving and par-4 scoring. His ability to get hot with the irons makes him a strong longshot at TPC Scottsdale.

Outright: 0.2 units

J.T. Poston — 74/1 (0.1 Units)

Poston’s wedge play and putting on overseeded surfaces give him sneaky value in a birdie fest. While not the longest hitter, he excels when precision is prioritized.

Top 10 Bets

• Sam Burns Top 10 (+235) — 0.5 units
• Michael Thorbjornsen Top 10 (+370) — 0.4 units
• Kurt Kitayama Top 10 (+400) — 0.4 units

Top 20 Bets

• Pierceson Coody Top 20 (+180) — 1 unit
• J.T. Poston Top 20 (+200) — 1 unit

These plays provide steadier exposure in a volatile scoring environment while maintaining strong course-fit alignment.

Tournament Matchups (Caesars Odds)

Tournament Matchup: Kurt Kitayama (-125) vs Wyndham Clark (3u) 

Kitayama’s course fit, par-4 scoring, and comfort in birdie-heavy setups give him the edge over Clark at TPC Scottsdale.

Tournament Matchup: Sam Burns (-105) vs Ben Griffin (2u) 

Burns’ superior birdie rate and wedge play make him the stronger four-round option in a scoring-first environment.

Tournament Matchup: Xander Schauffele (-140) vs Hideki Matsuyama (2u)

Schauffele’s consistency tee-to-green and stronger putting profile on overseeded greens give him the advantage over Matsuyama this week.

Final Betting Card Summary

Outrights

• Schauffele 19/1 — 0.4u
• Burns 29/1 — 0.3u
• Coody 55/1 — 0.2u
• Thorbjornsen 55/1 — 0.2u
• Kitayama 60/1 — 0.2u
• Poston 74/1 — 0.1u

Top 10s

• Burns +235 — 0.5u
• Thorbjornsen +370 — 0.4u
• Kitayama +400 — 0.4u

Top 20s

• Coody +180 — 1u
• Poston +200 — 1u

Tournament Matchups

• Kitayama -125 over Wyndham Clark — 3u
• Burns -105 over Ben Griffin — 2u
• Schauffele -140 over Matsuyama — 2u