Betting Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers – July 22, 2025

Tonight’s interleague matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Detroit Tigers features a key pitching duel: Mitch Keller vs. Casey Mize. While both starters bring intrigue, the sharper betting edge lies with Detroit at –132, supported by a 59.5% win probability and +5.30% expected value (EV). Here’s why the Tigers are the smarter bet:

1. Tigers’ Lineup Is Clicking: Fresh Talent, Steady Production

Detroit has quietly become one of July’s most dependable teams, winning 6 of their last 9 games while averaging 4.7 runs per game in that span.

• Riley Greene: Slugging 25 HR in 99 games, emerging as a power anchor.
• Colt Keith: Hitting .260/.309/.380 with 8 home runs, injecting energy into the lineup.

This refreshed roster has kept Detroit productive despite recent turnover—amplifying their edge when paired with strong starting pitching.

2. Pitching Matchup: Mize’s Momentum vs. Keller’s Slide

Detroit Starter – Casey Mize

• 3.15 ERA over last four starts, .214 opponent average
• Averaging nearly 6 innings per outing
• Velocity and command trending up

Pittsburgh Starter – Mitch Keller

• 5.18 ERA over last five starts
• Declining strikeout rate and rising walks
• xFIP of 4.55 and has allowed 5+ runs in 2 of last 3 road games

Edge: Detroit – Mize’s form and command stand in sharp contrast to Keller’s recent volatility.

3. Pirates’ Offense: Cold and Contained

The Pirates continue to struggle at the plate:

• Only 3.6 runs per game in July
• .655 OPS over last 30 days (bottom 5 in MLB)
• wRC+ vs. RHP: 78 (26th in MLB)
• K-rate vs. RHP: 25.3% (8th-highest)

Outside of Reynolds and Hayes, the Pirates’ lineup lacks consistency — and will likely struggle against a hot starter and a Detroit bullpen ranked 9th in ERA since July 1.

4. Betting Angle: Tigers Offer +5.30% EV at –132

The line of –132 implies a 56.9% win probability, but Detroit’s true odds are closer to 59.5%, offering a +5.30% expected value. That’s strong upside in a short favorite, especially when supported by data and matchup edges.

• Reliable starting pitcher
• Improving offense
• Recent win streaks
• Market still undervalues Detroit’s momentum

5. Summary: Detroit Has the Edge Across the Board

• Clear pitching edge with Mize
• Hotter, deeper offense
• Better bullpen performance in July
• Backed by a favorable line and win probability

The Pirates continue to fade while the Tigers trend upward — and this is a perfect spot to capitalize.