Bears Team Total Over 26.5 vs. Bengals: Caleb Williams and Chicago’s Offense Set for Another Big Day

Bears Team Total Over 26.5 vs. Bengals: Caleb Williams and Chicago’s Offense Set for Another Big Day

Bet: Bears Team Total Over 26.5

Overview: Chicago’s Offense Keeps Rolling Behind Caleb Williams

The Chicago Bears have evolved into one of the NFL’s most dangerous offenses — and it starts with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, who’s been everything Chicago hoped for and more.

Coming off multiple high-scoring performances, the Bears now face a Cincinnati Bengals defense that ranks near the bottom of the league against the pass. With Williams dealing and his weapons firing on all cylinders, the Bears Team Total Over 26.5 looks like one of the sharpest Week 9 bets on the board.

Caleb Williams Has Brought Star Power to Chicago

Through six games in 2025, Caleb Williams has thrown for 1,351 yards, completing 61.1% of his passes with 9 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions, good for a 92.9 passer rating.

He’s been particularly sharp in recent weeks, showing advanced pocket movement and poise beyond his years. After setting multiple Bears rookie records in 2024 — including 3,541 passing yards and 20 touchdowns — Williams has taken a major leap in year two.

Under offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, the Bears have tailored the scheme perfectly to his strengths: quick reads, layered route concepts, and vertical shots that showcase his arm talent. The results speak for themselves — Chicago is averaging 30.2 points per game over its last three contests.

Cincinnati’s Defense Can’t Stop the Pass

This is a nightmare matchup for the Bengals. Through eight weeks, Cincinnati ranks:

• 30th in passing yards allowed (274.5 YPG)
• 31st in yards per attempt (8.4)
• 32nd in explosive pass plays allowed (20+ yards)
• 29th in red-zone defense (TDs on 69% of trips)

They’ve struggled all season to generate consistent pressure, which will be a major issue against a quarterback like Williams, who’s lethal when given time.

Opposing QBs have completed over 68% of passes against this unit, and the Bengals’ corners have been repeatedly burned on vertical routes — a huge problem against Chicago’s dynamic weapons DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet.

Why the Bears Team Total Over 26.5 Is the Play

Everything about this matchup favors Chicago’s offense. Williams’ creativity and arm strength allow the Bears to stretch the field, while Waldron’s play calling has made this unit unpredictable and efficient.

Cincinnati’s inability to get off the field on third downs (allowing 46% conversions) means Williams should have extra possessions — and that’s dangerous for a defense already giving up big plays.

The Bears have scored 25+ points in four of their last five games, showing consistency even against stronger defenses. Against a Bengals secondary ranked bottom-3 in nearly every pass defense metric, that trend should continue.

Betting Trends to Support the Play

• Bears have scored 25+ points in four of their last five games.
• Bengals have allowed 28+ points in three straight road contests.
• Chicago is 5–1 to the Team Total Over in its last six home games.
• Cincinnati ranks bottom-5 in defensive DVOA against the pass.

Prediction: Bears 31, Bengals 20

Caleb Williams has elevated Chicago into a legitimate top-10 offense, and the Bengals’ struggling defense offers little resistance. With the Bears playing at home and Williams in rhythm, expect another explosive performance and a comfortable cover on the team total.

✅ Pick: Bears Team Total Over 26.5