NFL Betting Preview: Eagles at Buccaneers — Why the Under 45 Is the Play

NFL Betting Preview: Eagles at Buccaneers — Why the Under 45 Is the Play

The Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both exploded offensively last week, putting up 27+ points apiece in their respective games. That box score alone will catch the public’s eye and likely push action toward the over in this Week 4 matchup. But when you dig deeper into the numbers and context, the value lies on the under 45 total.

Eagles’ Passing Attack Still a Concern

Until last week, the Eagles’ passing offense had been one of the slowest starters in the league. Through the first two weeks, Philadelphia averaged under 100 yards per game through the air, relying almost entirely on their ground attack and defensive strength to grind out wins.

Last week’s uptick in passing yards may give the illusion of a turnaround, but one solid game doesn’t erase the larger sample. Against Tampa’s secondary, which has shown the ability to generate pressure and create turnovers, the Eagles are unlikely to suddenly morph into a high-volume passing offense.

Tampa Bay’s Offensive Line Issues

On the other side, Tampa Bay comes into this matchup with a banged-up offensive line. Protecting the quarterback has been a major concern, and that weakness becomes even more glaring against an Eagles front seven that thrives on collapsing pockets.

With Tampa’s protection issues, expect shorter drives, stalled possessions, and a heavier reliance on the run game. That chews clock and plays directly into an under-friendly game script.

Public Will Chase the Over — But Don’t

Seeing both teams put up 27+ points last week, casual bettors will naturally lean toward the over in this spot. But sharp bettors know that’s where value often gets created the other way. Both of those high-scoring outings came in favorable matchups, and this week the circumstances shift dramatically:

• Eagles’ pass game is still inconsistent.
• Tampa’s O-line is depleted.
• Both defenses match up well with the opposing offense’s weaknesses.

Expect a more physical, lower-scoring battle compared to what the public expects after last week’s fireworks.

Why Under 45 Is the Bet

The number is inflated because of recent results, but the underlying matchup points squarely to the under. Philadelphia will lean on its run game and defense, while Tampa Bay’s protection issues will limit their big-play opportunities. Add in the natural regression from both teams after offensive outbursts, and the under becomes the sharp side.

The Pick: Under 45
Look for a slower-paced, defensive battle in Tampa Bay. Both teams are coming off misleading high-scoring weeks, but the matchup and injuries tell a different story. Ride the under 45 on Sunday night.