Betting Preview: Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals – July 21, 2025

Tonight’s matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Kansas City Royals presents a promising opportunity for bettors, as the Cubs enter as -144 favorites with a projected 62.4% chance to win. That translates into a solid +5.73% expected value (EV), making Chicago a strong option for value-minded players. Let’s break down why the Cubs are worth backing tonight.

1. Cubs in Strong Form: Balanced and Dangerous

The Cubs have won 7 of their last 10 games and are surging into this matchup with confidence. Their offense has been clicking, averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last week.

Chicago has been excellent at taking advantage of weak pitching, especially from teams like Kansas City, whose bullpen has struggled to maintain leads. Their ability to hit both lefties and righties with power and patience puts them in a good position to extend this hot streak.

2. Pitching Matchup: Brasier vs. Cameron

Cubs Starting Pitcher: Ryan Brasier

Brasier has been transitioning from bullpen duty into a starter’s role and has handled it well. In his last three outings, he’s allowed just 3 earned runs across 12.2 innings, with improved command and swing-and-miss rates. His experience and poise give the Cubs stability to start the game strong.

Royals Starting Pitcher: Noah Cameron

Making just his second career start, lefty Noah Cameron enters with raw potential but minimal big-league experience. In his debut, he struggled with command, issuing multiple walks and getting hit hard by right-handed bats—exactly the type of hitters Chicago is loaded with.

This matchup clearly tilts toward Chicago, both in terms of reliability and matchup advantages.

3. Royals’ Struggles: Inexperience and Inconsistency

The Royals are in rebuilding mode and continue to face growing pains:

• Team ERA (last 15 games): 5.26 (27th in MLB)
• Bullpen WHIP: 1.48 (28th in MLB)
• Team OPS vs. RHP: .654 (30th in MLB)

Kansas City has struggled on both sides of the ball, especially against competent right-handers like Brasier. Their offense has also been cold, averaging just 3.1 runs per game over their last 10, and lacks the depth or pop to match up with Chicago over nine innings.

4. Long-Term Expected Value (EV): Cubs at -144 Show Solid Betting Value

Despite being favorites, the Cubs are undervalued at -144, which implies a win probability of 59%. Given their true win probability of 62.4%, this yields a +5.73% expected value, a meaningful edge for serious bettors.

While it’s not a huge underdog payout, positive EV bets on reliable teams are the foundation of long-term betting success.

5. Betting Value: Cubs Deserve Favorite Status

With a more experienced starter, deeper lineup, and a bullpen that’s been far more effective than Kansas City’s, the Cubs deserve to be favored — and potentially by even more. The pitching edge, lineup balance, and current form all point toward Chicago getting the job done.